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How to Analyze a Rental Property Deal

Five dimensions of deal analysis with real numbers, hard gates that force a FAIL, IDEAL scoring, velocity ratings, and the mistakes that turn good investors into bagholders.

Analyzing a rental property deal requires checking five dimensions: equity position at close, monthly cash flow after all expenses, cash on cash return, debt service coverage, and capital velocity. A deal that passes on cash flow but fails on equity is a bad deal. Run all five checks before making an offer.

The example deal

Every calculation in this guide uses the same property so you can follow the math from start to finish. This is a single family rental in a Midwest market with the following numbers:

Input Value
Purchase price$150,000
Loan amount (80% LTV)$120,000
Down payment$30,000
Closing costs$5,000
Rehab budget$25,000
After repair value (ARV)$195,000
Monthly rent$1,150
Interest rate7.25%, 30 year fixed
Bedrooms3

Total cash invested is down payment ($30,000) plus closing costs ($5,000) plus rehab ($25,000), which equals $60,000. This is the denominator for every return calculation. The loan amount is the bank's money, not yours.

Dimension 1: Equity position at close

Equity position tells you whether you are underwater on day one. It answers a simple question: if you had to sell this property right after rehab, would you walk away with money or write a check?

Equity = ARV minus (Loan Balance + Remaining Rehab Debt)
All in cost = Purchase Price + Closing Costs + Rehab. Equity = ARV minus All In Cost financed portion.

All in cost: Purchase price ($150,000) + closing costs ($5,000) + rehab ($25,000) = $180,000. ARV ($195,000) minus all in cost ($180,000) = $15,000 equity captured, or 7.7% of ARV. Your loan balance is $120,000, so your total equity position is $195,000 minus $120,000 = $75,000.

Why this matters

Equity at close is your margin of safety. If the market drops 8%, a deal with 7.7% equity capture is underwater. Strong BRRR deals target 20% to 30% equity capture so they survive a downturn and still qualify for a cash out refinance.

Dimension 2: Monthly cash flow

Cash flow is what keeps you solvent between tenants, during repairs, and through rate hikes. A property that burns cash every month will eventually force a sale at the worst possible time.

Monthly Item Amount
Gross rent$1,150
Principal and interest ($120K at 7.25%, 30yr)($818)
Property taxes($125)
Insurance($85)
Property management (8%)($92)
Maintenance reserve (5%)($58)
Vacancy reserve (5%)($58)
CapEx reserve (3%)($35)
Net monthly cash flow($121)

This deal produces negative $121 per month in cash flow. That is negative $1,452 per year. Before you stop reading, remember that cash flow is only one of five dimensions. A deal can fail on cash flow but still be worth pursuing if the equity capture and velocity are strong enough. But the hard gates section below explains when negative cash flow is a dealbreaker.

Dimension 3: Cash on cash return

CoC = Annual Cash Flow / Total Cash Invested x 100
($1,452) / $60,000 x 100 = negative 2.4%

A negative 2.4% cash on cash return means you are paying $1,452 per year for the privilege of owning this property. For a buy and hold investor, this is a failing grade. For a BRRR investor who plans to refinance and recover capital within 6 months, the CoC on current financing is less important than the post refi numbers.

Dimension 4: Debt service coverage ratio

DSCR = Net Operating Income / Annual Debt Service
NOI = Gross Rent minus Operating Expenses (excluding debt service)

Annual NOI: $13,800 gross rent minus $5,436 operating expenses (taxes, insurance, PM, maintenance, vacancy, CapEx) = $8,364. Annual debt service: $818 x 12 = $9,816. DSCR = $8,364 / $9,816 = 0.85. A DSCR below 1.0 means the property cannot cover its own debt. Lenders typically require 1.25 for DSCR loans. This deal would not qualify.

Dimension 5: Capital velocity

Capital velocity measures how fast your cash comes back to you. A deal that locks up $60,000 for ten years is fundamentally different from one that returns $55,000 in six months so you can redeploy it.

Capital Recovery = Refi Proceeds minus Existing Loan Balance
Velocity % = Capital Recovery / Total Cash Invested x 100

Refinance at 75% of ARV: 75% of $195,000 = $146,250 new loan. Minus existing $120,000 balance = $26,250 cash back. Velocity: $26,250 / $60,000 = 43.8% capital recovery. You still have $33,750 locked in the deal. This is a SLOW velocity rating (below 80% recovery).

Hard gates: automatic FAIL

Hard gates are binary. If any one of these conditions is true, the deal fails regardless of how strong the other metrics look. No amount of equity capture compensates for a property that drains your bank account every month with no path to recovery.

FAIL
Negative equity at close. All in cost exceeds ARV means you are underwater on day one. Our example: $180,000 vs $195,000 ARV. Passes with $15,000 equity.
FAIL
Negative monthly cash flow. Rent does not cover expenses. Our example: negative $121/month. Fails.
FAIL
CoC return below minimum threshold. Default floor is 15% for BRRR strategies, configurable per profile. Our example: negative 2.4%. Fails.
Verdict on our example deal

This deal fails two of three hard gates (cash flow and CoC). In a disciplined underwriting system, analysis stops here. But understanding why it fails, and what would need to change, is where the real education happens.

Soft gates: score penalties

Soft gates do not kill a deal outright. They reduce the overall score, flagging risk areas that might become problems during the hold period.

PENALTY
Rent below bedroom aware floor. A 3 bed renting for $1,150 where 3 bed comps average $1,300 signals underperformance or a weaker micro location.
PENALTY
Rehab budget exceeds $75,000. Large rehabs carry more risk: contractor delays, cost overruns, longer vacancy. Our example is $25,000. No penalty.
PENALTY
Unfavorable layout. One bathroom, no garage, or unusual floor plans rent for less and attract a smaller tenant pool.

IDEAL score: the complete picture

No single metric tells the whole story. IDEAL scoring evaluates five dimensions of return, each capturing something the others miss.

Component What It Measures Our Example
I IncomeCash flow after all expenses($121)/mo, ($1,452)/yr
D Debt paydownTenant pays off your mortgage principal$2,400/yr
E Equity captureSpread between all in cost and ARV$15,000 (7.7%)
A AppreciationLong term market value growth~$5,850/yr at 3%
L Leverage$60K controls a $195K asset3.25x leverage

Even though cash flow is negative, the other four components produce $23,250 in value. Total first year return including all five IDEAL components: approximately $21,798, or a 36.3% total return on the $60,000 invested. That is the difference between looking at cash flow alone and looking at the complete picture. However, a strong IDEAL score does not rescue a deal that fails hard gates. The gates exist to prevent you from buying properties that drain cash, regardless of paper equity gains.

Velocity rating

Velocity rating classifies how quickly your capital returns after a refinance. ROCKET means 95%+ capital recovered with rehab at or below $50,000: nearly all your cash back, ready to buy the next deal immediately. STEADY means 80%+ recovered with rehab at or below $75,000: most cash back, one or two deals per year pace. SLOW means below 80% recovery: significant capital locked up, slower portfolio growth.

Our example recovers 43.8% of capital, a SLOW rating. To hit ROCKET, you would need a lower purchase price or higher ARV so the refi covers nearly all of your cash invested.

Quick deal scorecard

Here is every metric for our example property in one table.

Metric Value Gate Result
Equity at close$15,000 (7.7%)Hard: must be positivePASS
Monthly cash flow($121)Hard: must be positiveFAIL
Cash on cash returnnegative 2.4%Hard: minimum 15%FAIL
DSCR0.85Lender threshold: 1.25FAIL
Capital velocity43.8%ROCKET requires 95%+SLOW
Rehab budget$25,000Soft: penalty above $75KPASS
IDEAL total return$21,798 (36.3%)InformationalStrong
Overall verdictFails 2 of 3 hard gatesFAIL

What would make this deal work

A deal is not inherently good or bad. It is good or bad at a specific price, rate, and rent. Change any one variable and the scorecard shifts. At $130,000 purchase instead of $150,000, P&I drops from $818 to $709 and cash flow goes positive. At $1,350/month rent instead of $1,150, cash flow becomes positive $87. At 5.5% interest instead of 7.25%, P&I drops to $681 and cash flow turns positive. Seller financing at 5% with interest only payments could drop debt service to $650/month. The deal that fails today passes tomorrow if you negotiate the right terms.

Common mistakes in deal analysis

Using asking price instead of offer price. The listing price is the seller's wish. Your analysis should use the price you are willing to pay. If the deal only works at $130,000, offer $130,000. If the seller says no, walk away.
Ignoring CapEx reserves. If you are not setting aside 3% to 5% of rent for capital expenditures, your "cash flow" is a fiction. A $7,000 roof repair on a property with no reserves wipes out years of thin margins.
Using pro forma rent instead of actual comps. Pro forma rent is what the seller says the property could rent for. Actual comps are what similar properties in the same zip code, bedroom count, and condition rent for today. The gap between them is where bad deals hide.
Analyzing only cash flow. Cash flow is one dimension out of five. A deal with thin cash flow but strong equity capture and fast capital velocity can outperform a "cash flow positive" deal that locks up your capital for a decade.
Skipping the hard gates. "It is negative cash flow now, but rents are rising." Maybe. Or maybe you hold a cash burning property for three years waiting for rents that never materialize. Hard gates protect you from optimism bias.

How DoorVault runs deal analysis

DoorVault's deal analyzer runs all five dimensions automatically when you paste a property address or Zillow URL. It pulls comparable rents, insurance estimates, and market data, then scores the deal against your personal underwriting profile.

Hard gates and soft gates run against your configurable thresholds. Set your CoC floor at 8%, 12%, or 15% and the system enforces it consistently across every deal.
IDEAL scoring calculates all five return dimensions (Income, Debt paydown, Equity capture, Appreciation, Leverage) and produces a single composite score.
Velocity rating (ROCKET, STEADY, SLOW) shows how fast your capital comes back after a refinance so you know your scaling pace before you buy.
Knox AI can underwrite a deal from a chat message. Paste an address and Knox runs the full pipeline: property data, rent comps, insurance, and underwriting in under 30 seconds.
After you close the deal, the same property flows into your portfolio tracker. Projected numbers get replaced by actuals as real transactions post each month.

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DoorVault scores every deal against hard gates, IDEAL dimensions, and your personal underwriting thresholds. No spreadsheets.

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